Fortune telling by reading tree entrails

THAT folks, is the “science” of the global warmists.  Is that the PETA version of reading pigeon and goat entrails?

Richard Fernandez of Pajamas Media has the background on the infamous “hockey stick”, the Holy Grail of the Global Warmists, and more importantly, the story of the intrepid scientist, Steve McIntyre, who spent years trying to verify the hockey stick claim.  The basis of the hockey stick was the reading of tree rings in very old trees.  The analysts claimed that the growth of the rings provided insight into the average temperature for the year it grew and thereby provide a chronology of the Earth’s temperature over long periods.

Now while the religionists will claim that McIntyre’s quest was to discredit the hockey stick, the reality is that for REAL science, it is necessary to be able to prove and recreate claims.  Statistics are useless (except for editors and politicians) without the background data to provide context.  Likewise, scientific results need to be backed up with the source raw data to verify the raw data’s veracity and enable others to recreate the same results, ideally by using different methods.  One of the things that makes scientific journals so painful to read is the amount of time spent addressing the nitty gritty details that back up the conclusion.  Usually, this process of verification substantiates claims.  Where careful scientific studies have been conducted, the results are substantiated.  Then again, there are times when nobody can repeat the experiments (cold fusion anyone).  Here’s a look at what McIntyre found.

  • The entire hockey stick claim that is supposed to represent the climate of the entire Earth is based on twelve tree samples taken from a single forest.
  • The twelve samples were extracted from a collection of hundreds.  The bulk of the samples did not support the hockey stick scenario implying that the twelve were carefully selected to support the story.

Tree ring growth is not just a function of temperature.  Rainfall and other environmental factors affect growth, too.  The first challenge to the findings should probably have been to the question the entire concept of trying to read temperature from tree rings.  A simple scientific technique that could have saved a lot of trouble would have been to question why the ‘hockey stick’ doesn’t reflect the Little Ice Age that started about the 14th Century.  The cooling of the Earth during that period was well documented, yet it doesn’t show on the graph.

Now here’s a scientific conclusion for you:  I do not believe in “experts” anymore.  I am beyond skeptical.  I just flat out don’t believe them anymore.  I do not believe the H1N1 hysteria.  I didn’t believe the West Nile Virus hysteria.  I didn’t think AIDS was going to wipe out the Earth’s population.  I don’t believe in Anthropogenic Global Warming.  I don’t believe in predictions of an imminent ice age.  I don’t believe in any food fads.  I don’t believe experts.  And that makes me a better scientist than the scientists I am ignoring.  I observed that they make predictions that NEVER come true.  I observe that every hysterical claim they make first and foremost contributes to the accumulation of power and money by the ‘experts’ themselves.  A clear conflict of interests.  I conclude that the bulk of, if not all, of the claims by ‘experts’ of impending catastrophe has less to do with avoiding the catastrophe than avoiding the loss of grant money by the claimant.  I predict based on historical facts that the current crop of catastrophic predictions won’t come true.  Will catastrophes happen?  Absolutely.  Can the ‘experts’ prevent them?  Not a chance.  H1N1 is almost guaranteed to fizzle simply because the ‘experts’ have begun running around waving their hands in the air over it.  I rest assured that the next REAL plague will come out of nowhere and catch the ‘experts’ completely by surprise.

The modern ‘scientific experts’ might want to study up on the tell-tales of animal entrails.  It might improve their prognosticating skills.

This rant’s got legs, but I gotta’ go to work.

To be continued.


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